Monday, February 2, 2009

The speed of the internet and the global economic crisis

I have a theory about the economic crisis. While there are a lot of targets for blame, I think that the internet is the most responsible. Sure there was Madoff, the sub-prime lending behavior, a housing bubble, etc., but why should we blame the internet? Well, it isn't really the internet that was the problem, it was the speed at which we gather, process, and act on information.
As the housing market began to to inflate, all of the realtors and appraisers (two of my least favorite professions) were able to justify exaggerated prices based on the most recent sales data. Unfortunately, the most recent sales data were slightly mild inflations of value from the most recent sales data. Which happened to be slightly inflated based on the most recent sales data. The trend was not to look too far into the past, say a month ago, because that was not the most recent data. It was old for the internet age... we could call it 'internet old' [That is, like, so last week!].
The same goes with lending behavior... banks have access to vast amounts of information about each of us through our credit scores. If our most recent activity looked promising, they may be more willing to risk giving us a loan. They've been getting better at not defaulting, right? The FICO score might be low, but the government obviously wants us to get people into housing because they loosened the rules on lending, right? The economy is doing well, we are helping people, and we can't miss taking a profit if other banks would lend to these people.
Here is where the internet killed us. People started to observe that there was a housing bubble and people started to default on their loans. It became news faster than we could imagine. Now for months, the news media have pounded it into us that we are either headed speedily towards a depression or possibly the end of human civilization. (They have every incentive to tell us the horrible news because if they don't do it first, they won't be the ones breaking the story and their ad revenue will drop. So what if they are wrong?) There was a virtual run on a number of banks that may have weathered the economic storm had everyone not heard about their possible problems and reacted to them. These possible problems became very large problems as people began to overreact.
This overreaction became instant Drudgereport updates which fueled panic. People began a run on the bank. Not a run on the bank in the 1920's style, but an immediate, online tidal wave of transactions and physical lines. In the 1920's banks and citizens maybe had a day to react, but online transfers make it so much easier to move money now. 24 hour banking is great, right? Then there were Drugereport updates about which bank was next. People began to speculate and interpret any information that was available to them. Unfortunately, there is a lot of information available with a simple click. Some of it good, some not so good.
People who control their own investment accounts began to panic buy and sell. The buys and sells spawned days of market fluctuation of the Dow of nearly 900 points. Up to date information at a rapid pace created uncertainty. This spawned news of uncertainty which lead to more uncertainty, and more panic. The market lost any sense of reason that it once had.
Now everyone is worried about a depression and high unemployment they we will all create from our worry and fear about a depression. While it is probably overly simplistic, it is my take.
Access to immediate information and control of personal portfolios has created a huge problem, everything moves too fast. And I blame it all on the internet.

P.S. and the realtors and appraisers

3 comments:

Rachel Clare said...

Okay, so this was a long post. So I just read the first and last sentence. This is what I got:

I have a theory about the economic crisis. / AND I blame it all on the internet.

Pretty much sums it up right?

JT said...

Yeah, but don't forget the realtors and appraisers. They suck too!

PL Rath said...

Spot on, JT. The internet is to blame in a lot of current world problems. I'm sure glad that most of my money is in my mattress...